More UK deaths than births for the first time since 1976

There were more than 16,000 fewer births than deaths in the UK in the year to mid-2023. Excluding the early part of the Covid-19 pandemic, this is the first time deaths have outnumbered births since 1976.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) point to a combination of declining fertility and an ageing generation of baby boomers as key reasons behind the numbers.

The ONS found that the fertility rate across England and Wales fell to 1.49 children per woman in 2022, down from 1.55 in 2021. To maintain a population, its “replacement rate” needs to be at least 2.1 children per woman, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

In Scotland the gap between deaths and births was the largest on record and it was the ninth year in a row when more people died than were born. Wales also saw births lagging behind deaths, while England and Northern Ireland recorded slightly fewer deaths than births.

However, the overall UK population still rose by 1 per cent to 68,265,209 people, driven by net international migration of 677,300.

Experts suggest demographic changes could mean UK births once again surpass deaths in the next few years, as people increasingly have babies later in life.

Dr Andrea Tilstra, a research fellow at Oxford University’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, told the BBC: “Younger generations are postponing their childbearing, and so while fertility rates might be declining, there’s a chance that this could rebound. That could happen as these cohorts enter their thirties, maybe even early forties, and the ability to have children later in one’s life becomes the norm, supported by technology like IVF.”

Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease meanwhile remain the most common causes of death in England and Wales, a position they have held since 2015 (with the exception of two years at the start of the Covid pandemic).